Use case · Geopolitics
Research for geopolitical prediction markets
Ceasefire talks, sanction packages and summit outcomes. These markets resolve on events that are reported locally, in local languages, well before any English wire carries them.
What this covers. MarketClaims reads the coverage of each geopolitical market in the languages it is reported in, turns it into dated claims with their sources attached, and shows which side of a dispute each claim comes from. Where only one party has confirmed something, the brief says so rather than averaging it away.
Published research on these markets
Free to read, sources attached, nothing behind a form.
What we read for these markets
The primary coverage a geopolitics question actually turns on.
In the original language
Regional outlets usually carry an event hours or days before an English summary exists.
Attributed, never merged
Kept as what one party asserts, not folded in with independent reporting.
Reuters, AFP, Anadolu
The corroboration, or the absence of it, with the time each one filed.
Questions this research answers
Each one resolves on a stated rule. The evidence has to speak to that rule, not to the mood.
- Is the ceasefire confirmed by both sides or only claimed by one?Each claim with the party and the outlet behind it, so one-sided reporting is visible.
- What are local outlets reporting that wires haven't picked up?The claims drawn from regional coverage, in the language they were filed in.
- Which precondition in the resolution criteria remains unmet?The venue's wording, quoted, against what the reporting establishes.
See it on a market you actually care about.
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