Track record

Every call is graded. Here are the rules.

A research lean you can’t audit is just an opinion. This page documents exactly how MarketClaims scores itself, and where that measurement stands today.

Rule 1

Timestamped before resolution.

A lean only counts if it was recorded while the market was still open. Calls made or revised after the outcome is knowable are excluded from the record.

Rule 2

Graded against the actual resolution.

When a market resolves, the recorded lean is compared to the resolved outcome. A YES lean on a market that resolves YES is a hit; on NO, a miss. No partial credit, no re-litigating the resolution.

Rule 3

Abstentions are reported, not hidden.

“Insufficient evidence” verdicts are counted and published separately. They are neither hits nor misses - but the rate is public, because a system that abstains constantly isn’t useful, and one that never abstains isn’t honest.

Rule 4

Hits and misses both stay published.

The record is append-only. Misses are not removed, reweighted, or footnoted away. Confidence levels are recorded with each call so calibration can be checked, not just accuracy.

Where it stands

Too early to judge.

Published accuracy: Unavailable
Independent settled sample: Not published here
Publication threshold: 100 independent markets
Exclusions: After-resolution calls; related events counted once

Before measuring, we fixed the bar: no verdict on accuracy until 100 independent markets have settled, with related markets on the same event counted once. Until that bar is met, we publish no accuracy figure and make no claim that our leans forecast better than the market price. When we measured that, they did not.

Settled markets you watched appear on Watch inside the app, next to what we read before they resolved. A small sample says very little either way. Past performance does not predict future results.

See the record for yourself.

Settled markets sit on Watch inside the app, next to the read we recorded before they resolved.

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