Evidence engine for prediction markets
We read the news behind the price. Nobody else does.
Prediction markets hand you a number and no reason. We read the reporting around the clock in 20+ languages, turn it into claims you can check, and show you the source behind every one, so you can decide what the price is actually worth.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed, and no funds are held.
From the public research desk
Browse published briefs →How it works
From the reporting to a question you can answer yourself
Four steps, each one checkable. Nothing is summarised into a score.
- 20+languages, round the clock
We read the news.
Our pipeline ingests online news stories 24/7 in 20+ languages - real-time and across recent weeks - so context is never stale.
Read continuouslyReal time, and across recent weeks - every claim pinned to its source
Stories become claims.
Each story is distilled into discrete, checkable claims, each pinned to its source, publication time, and language.
- counted on each side
Sorted, then weighed.
Every claim is tagged by how it relates to the question, with the count on each side in view. A published brief stops there. Signed in, the same evidence is also weighed into a direction with a stated confidence.
- 1rule that decides it
The rules come too.
Each brief carries the venue's own resolution wording, the deadline, and the ambiguities that could settle it against the reading most people would call correct.
From the research desk
Published research
Real questions, with the claims and the sources behind them. Every brief is free to read, and says plainly what it could not settle.
FAQ
Questions, answered plainly
Is this financial advice?
No. MarketClaims is a research tool. Our leans are evidence summaries, not recommendations to trade. We place no trades and hold no funds.
What exactly is a “claim”?
A discrete, checkable statement extracted from a news story - pinned to its source, publication time, and language - that bears on a market's resolution criteria.
Where does the evidence come from?
Online news coverage monitored 24/7 in 20+ languages, spanning real-time stories and recent-weeks context. Every claim links to its source.
Why is the signal “conservative”?
When evidence is thin or conflicting, we say so - the verdict can be “insufficient evidence.” We'd rather abstain than overreach.
How do I know the track record is honest?
Calls are timestamped before resolution and graded against actual outcomes - hits and misses both published.
Do you connect to wallets or exchange accounts?
No. There is nothing to connect. MarketClaims is read-only research - it holds no funds and connects to no wallets.
Which markets are supported?
Polymarket and Kalshi markets; paste a market URL or browse by category.
Will this make me money?
We don't promise that, and you should be wary of anyone who does. We promise sourced evidence and an honest scorecard.
The news never sleeps. Neither does your research.
Pick a market. Read the evidence. Decide for yourself.