Use case · Elections
Research for election prediction markets
Polls, endorsements, court rulings and ballot deadlines. Election markets move on news that breaks in many languages and time zones, and resolve on a rule somebody wrote down in advance.
What this covers. MarketClaims reads the reporting behind each election market, turns it into dated claims with their sources attached, and sorts them for and against the market's own question. The venue's settlement wording comes with it, because that is what actually decides the outcome.
Published research on these markets
Free to read, sources attached, nothing behind a form.
What we read for these markets
The primary coverage a elections question actually turns on.
Named pollsters, dated
The release as reported, with the field dates and the outlet that carried it.
Filings, rulings, deadlines
Ballot certification, court decisions and the procedural dates a market resolves on.
In the language it broke in
Endorsements and withdrawals are usually reported locally first.
Questions this research answers
Each one resolves on a stated rule. The evidence has to speak to that rule, not to the mood.
- Who is favored to win this primary, and what does reporting actually say?The dated claims behind the price, each with the outlet that filed it.
- Has any credible outlet confirmed the candidate's withdrawal?What was reported, by whom, and what was only claimed.
- What procedural deadlines could change how this market resolves?The venue's own wording, quoted, with the ambiguities named.
See it on a market you actually care about.
Paste any Polymarket or Kalshi URL and we will read the news behind it.
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